A Tour of Theories of Change

Let’s first look at a classic overview of theories of change. A theory of change is your theory about how the world changes, and your impact strategy is your hypothesis about how you will leverage this change making approach. We’re going to look at ten theories of change to help build a solid picture of the landscape. You will realise as we go through them that you agree with some more than others. Remember, that which ones are effective is relative to what type of problem you’re seeking to solve. Let’s begin - My favourite overview comes from the Australian Youth Climate Movement (AYCC). The following 10 Theories of Change come from AYCC’s work - thank you thank you thank you. I’ve edited them to adapt them to be more generally applicable beyond just climate change.. Read them as belief statements. “The way I see it, a better world will come from.......” Many of these ideas go hand in hand, and many of them can be used together in a coherent, multi-prong approach. Some of them are slow, some of them are fast. Some of them are more emotionally charged, some of them are more rational and distanced. They are all necessary.

1. THE INDIVIDUAL CHANGE THEORY:

A better world will come through transformative change of a critical mass of individuals, their consciousness, attitudes, behaviours, and skills. Encouraging enough people to become more ethical individuals: reduce carbon footprint, improve their personal connection to nature, increase their mindfulness and compassion, practice better personal behaviours and choices.

METHODS TO ENACT THIS THEORY:

investment in individual change through training, personal transformation/ consciousness-raising workshops or processes; dialogues and encounter groups.

2. THE HEALTHY RELATIONSHIPS AND CONNECTIONS THEORY:

A better world emerges out of a process of breaking down isolation, polarisation, division, prejudice and stereotypes between/among groups. Strong relationships are a necessary ingredient for a better world. Community building, “global village” consciousness, growing empathy and compassion in society especially between people experience a deep difference of view will put us in a position to tackle the problems we face as a collective.

METHODS TO ENACT THIS THEORY: Processes of dialogue; networking; relationship-building processes, community healing initiatives, group therapy, mass conflict resolution and peacebuilding process, neighborhood connections, practical programs for groups to collaborate on substantive problems.

3. THE WITHDRAWAL OF RESOURCES THEORY:

Some social problems require vast amounts of material and human capital. For example mining, global supply chains, or the financial sector. If we can interrupt the supply of people and goods to the system that maintains the problem, it will collapse and our vision will be realised.

If we remove the human, financial and other resources necessary to keep polluting activities going, then those polluting activities will stop!

METHODS TO ENACT THIS THEORY:

Campaigns to cut off finance (e.g. banks); target national budgets; embargoes and boycotts; blockades; strikes.

4. THE ROOT CAUSES/JUSTICE THEORY:

We can achieve our social change vision by addressing the underlying issues of injustice, oppression/exploitation of both people and our planet. These root causes such as overcoming sexism and patriarchy, racism, extraction, perpetual growth, white supremacy underpin all other issues and thus should be tackled as directly as possible.

METHODS TO ENACT THIS THEORY:

Long-term campaigns for social and structural change, truth and reconciliation processes; changes in social institutions; embedded environmental sustainability and intergenerational equity objectives in laws, regulations, and economic systems, not supporting ‘false solutions’ such as emissions trading systems if they do not reflect an integrated approach to inclusive trade.

5. THE INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT THEORY:

Our vision will be secured by establishing stable and reliable institutions that guarantee democracy, equity, justice, and fair allocation of resources. Ensuring news is independent and accurate, that democratic institutions serve the interests of the public, not certain private interests; that lobby groups don’t hold as much influence over government decision-making

METHODS TO ENACT THIS THEORY:

Create new constitutional and governance arrangements/entities; development of human rights, rule of law, anti-corruption; establishment of democratic/equitable economic structures; economic development; democratisation.

6. THE POLITICAL ELITES THEORY:

Our vision will be achieved when it is in the interest of political (and other) leaders to take the necessary steps. Our efforts must change the political calculus of key leaders and groups.

Keep the same leaders but change their minds, or make it political suicide for them if they don’t change.

METHODS TO ENACT THIS THEORY:

Raise the costs and reduce the benefits for political elites of maintaining the problem while increasing the incentives for the vision or solution; engage active and influential constituencies in favour of our vision; withdraw international support/ funding, this can involve approaches which are design to affect the mass consciousness / public perception of what’s right and wrong, and paint the elites as being in the wrong unless they shift their views.

7. THE GRASSROOTS MOBILISATION THEORY:

The world we want will come through people power. If we mobilise enough, power holders will have to pay attention. Make it infeasible for leaders to maintain the status quo using grassroots communities empowered en masse. Similar to the previous concept, however, more oriented towards people banding together on the ground.

METHODS TO ENACT THIS THEORY: Mobilise grassroots groups to either oppose or to advocate for positive action; nonviolent direct action campaigns; education/mobilisation efforts like running programs to build a communities’ skills in an issue area; organise advocacy groups; dramatic events which change the conversation or have shock/awe value.

8. THE ECONOMICS THEORY:

As Bill Clinton once said, “It’s the economy, stupid!” People make personal decisions and decision makers make policy decisions based on a system of rewards/incentives and punishments/sanctions that are essentially economic in nature. If we can change the economies associated with the problem, we can bring about change. We should make it more expensive to do the things that cause damage to our planet and people and create incentives for things that don’t.

METHODS TO ENACT THIS THEORY:

Use of government or financial institutions to change supply and demand dynamics; control incentive and reward systems; boycotts, taxes, cap and trade systems, subsidies.

9. THE PUBLIC ATTITUDES THEORY:

The problem is that people are more concerned with short-term costs and pressures than the future effects of issues we face. We can promote our visions for a better world by using the media (conventional and digital) to change public attitudes. If we raise awareness and change people’s attitudes towards how the world works then things will get better – education is the key!

METHODS TO ENACT THIS THEORY:

TV and radio programs, digital media that promotes new identities, lifestyles etc; modeling preferred behaviour; symbolic acts.

10. MEETING THE IMMEDIATE NEEDS OF THE CRISIS THEORY

People are already being affected by today’s challenges. People are losing their homes in disasters of fire, water and wind. People are losing their lives in racist violence. People are starving today. By bringing attention to their plight we will motivate people to help them, and in turn realise what is causing them to suffer, and being to explore our part in contributing to it. We should focus on assisting the victims of those adversely affected by the status quo.

METHODS TO ENACT THIS THEORY:

Fundraising, awareness raising campaigns, financing for immediate changes such as cameras on police uniforms.